To many in the petroleum industry, natural gas is the unsung hero of the energy transition.

It may not be a clean fuel, but it’s nowhere near as dirty as coal, which it has been pushing out of grids in Japan, South Korea, Canada and Poland over the past decade. In the U.S., which produces nearly 30% of the world’s gas-fired electricity, generation increased by 876 terawatt-hours between 2010 and 2023 — more than the 648 TWh pick-up in wind and solar — and enough to explain three-quarters of the 63% decline in coal power.

That’s led to expectations it might repeat the trick in the big developing Asian markets still hooked on solid fuel, such as China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam. It’s not going to happen — but that doesn’t mean that gas is done causing damage to its fellow fossil fuels. In Asia, it’s oil that will be in the firing line instead.