The kernel of the long-awaited "victory plan” for Ukraine that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy introduced this fall goes something like this: If you give me what I’ve been asking for — membership in NATO and permission to fire Western missiles deep into Russian territory — I could end the war by next year.

The demands are not in themselves new. The urgency is in the timing: The American election, and what President Joe Biden does before he leaves office, will have serious consequences for the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Actual membership in NATO is not in the cards for Ukraine until the war is over. The North Atlantic Alliance has already declared that Ukraine is on an "irreversible” path to membership, but that is as far as it is likely to go for now. Firing NATO missiles deep into Russia, however, is something a growing number of members have signaled they would allow.