This year’s U.S. presidential election is as polarizing as any in modern history, with both candidates’ supporters unable to fathom the other side’s choice.
Public opinion polls can show whom voters support and why. Polling data surely influenced former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent declaration that he is “the father of IVF” and Vice President Kamala Harris’ embrace of fracking. And by enabling citizens to absorb and respond to one another’s views and interests, polling provides an essential platform for democratic deliberation.
But in 2024, polls are even more important because they can legitimate an election outcome that many people are being encouraged — particularly by Trump and his allies — to view with skepticism. In the best-case scenario, polling will muddle through; at worst, it will misfire spectacularly, inflaming an already volatile situation. If Harris were to lose in states where she had been up by 4 percentage points, Democrats might be inclined to suspect the election’s integrity. One can easily imagine what would happen if Trump were in the same position, given Republican efforts — including a failed insurrection — to overturn the 2020 election, which he lost after being down by eight points.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.