Israel has delivered a proportionate, justified and likely effective strike on Iran's missile and air-defense systems.

This has forced a further dilemma onto Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as he tries to maintain deterrence without starting a wider regional war he can't afford and whose consequences neither side would be able to predict or control. However, the danger of such an escalation is far from over.

As with the barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles to which Israel was responding, we are unlikely to know the precise impact of Saturday morning's attack for some days, if at all. Yet this was a combined set of ballistic missile and combat aircraft strikes that Iranian air defenses are unlikely to have done much to block. Tehran’s 'nothing to see here' response should be taken as a sign that there were no widespread civilian casualties and that Khamenei wants the option to deescalate.