With hindsight, Iran made a major strategic blunder back in April, when it fired some 300 missiles and drones at Israel, only to see virtually all of them shot down or fail. Tuesday’s barrage, smaller in number but more potent, looks like another mistake.
Iran’s leaders had hoped to restore deterrence that had clearly failed earlier in April, when Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers were killed. Tehran’s response aimed to demonstrate power, without inflicting casualties that might force a potentially overwhelming Israeli retaliation.
The intended message was clear — we don’t want a real war, but if it comes to one, look what we can do. And yet the attack projected weakness instead. It showed Israel that Iran lacked either the capability or the willingness to hit back hard. The Israeli retaliation that followed — a single precision strike that destroyed air defense assets near an Iranian nuclear site — left no doubt as to Israel’s capabilities or intent.
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