After a 15-day election campaign, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has elected Shigeru Ishiba as its president. Since the ruling party holds a majority in the National Diet (parliament), Ishiba will be Japan’s next prime minister.

For the 67-year-old Ishiba, long a leading rival of the late Shinzo Abe, ascending to the post is the realization of a long-held dream. But Ishiba’s political star will likely soon fall — perhaps rapidly.

There are several reasons for this. For starters, Ishiba’s proposal of an “Asian NATO” is utterly unrealistic and will not withstand debate in the Diet. While Ishiba portrays himself as a security expert, he seems to lack some fundamental perspective. When this flaw becomes apparent, public support will melt away.