Kishida’s failure to support democracy in Myanmar

Fumio Kishida became prime minister in September 2021, the same year a military coup replaced the democratically elected civilian government in Myanmar. Yet Japan’s limited support for democratization in Myanmar under Kishida has been disappointing.

Kishida previously served as foreign minister from 2012 to 2017 and as acting defense minister in 2017. In the former capacity, he visited Myanmar several times and hosted numerous meetings with officials from Myanmar’s civilian government in Tokyo and elsewhere throughout the region.

Therefore, the people of Myanmar had high hopes that Kishida and Japan, as a liberal democracy, would do more to help them. However, they have been let down by Kishida’s leadership, especially compared with that of late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

In 2012, after returning to power, Abe adopted a proactive foreign affairs agenda. His “value-based” diplomacy promised to place democratization, peacebuilding and security at the center of Japan’s foreign policy.

The Abe government supported Myanmar’s democratic reform program beginning in 2013, canceled about $2 billion in debt and granted more aid. As Myanmar’s largest donor, Japan also developed an industrial zone in the Southeast Asian country.

In 2016, as foreign minister, Kishida met with Aung San Suu Kyi, then-state counselor of Myanmar, affirming the values of democracy and human rights. The Abe administration promised to provide aid worth ¥800 billion ($5.5 billion) to Myanmar over five years to support its peacebuilding and development efforts.

Abe was proactively involved in subsequent Mekong-Japan summits held in the region, discussing the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy as an effort to stem China’s growing influence and promising to continue providing maximum support for Suu Kyi’s efforts at democratic nation-building.

The second Abe administration’s proactive stance in supporting Myanmar’s democratization was underpinned by Tokyo’s long-standing bilateral ties with the country and its approach to regional geopolitics. Abe’s foreign policy, including supporting Myanmar, was tied to Japanese efforts to sustain the liberal international order, with Myanmar seen as a crucial part of Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

In contrast, Kishida’s policies toward Myanmar have been characterized by restraint and pragmatism. Following the 2021 coup, the incumbent’s government largely avoided direct involvement in the Myanmar crisis, viewing it as an internal affair.

Unlike Western nations, Japan has not imposed economic sanctions on the military junta. Instead, it has maintained a government-to-government relationship with Myanmar’s ruling military elite, focusing on economic ties rather than political pressure.

Despite the maintenance of relations with the junta, the coup severely impacted Japanese businesses in Myanmar, leading to the withdrawal of major companies such as Eneos Holdings and Kirin Holdings from key projects. Additionally, Japan’s financial aid to the country has largely passed through the military-controlled Myanmar Economic Corporation, raising concerns about its complicity in supporting the regime.

While Japan provided limited humanitarian aid after the coup, most of the assistance did not reach internally displaced people and victims of the military’s actions. Japan’s involvement in this area has been significantly reduced under Kishida, especially when compared with the Abe administration’s more development-oriented approach.

Japan’s historical ties to Myanmar, stemming from the World War II-era occupation and its role in training Myanmar’s early military leaders, has also influenced its cautious approach. Despite growing international pressure, Japan’s policy under Kishida has been shaped by the historical context as well as economic interests, leading to a less confrontational stance toward the junta.

This stance, along with a general focus on maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, showcases Kishida’s strategic balancing between promoting regional stability and maintaining Japan’s diplomatic and economic interests — an approach that has been all too cautious.

The outgoing prime minister has largely failed to follow in Abe’s footsteps, particularly in supporting democratization in Myanmar. Abe was committed to this goal, but Kishida has not significantly engaged with the Burmese pro-democracy movement, marking a clear difference between the two leaders.

Despite the expectations of the United States and other democracies that Japan would take a leading role in promoting liberal values in the region, many Asian democracies, including Japan, have prioritized business and trade relations with China and other authoritarian regimes instead.

At the same time, democracy is in decline across Asia and the lack of active involvement from regional democracies has allowed China to extend its influence and interference in Myanmar.

As Kishida’s tenure as prime minister comes to an end, the coup in Myanmar shows no signs of a resolution. It is crucial that Japan’s next leader takes a more active role in promoting democratization in the region, especially in Myanmar, to counter the growing influence of authoritarianism and support the restoration of democratic governance.