Come October, Japan will a have a new prime minister, and that person will be from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Those points are straightforward and incontestable. Everything else about this forthcoming leadership race? Not so much.

The field is crowded, with six candidates already throwing their hats in the ring for the party’s Sept. 27 presidential election, and several more are expected to join the fray. The LDP, even as it remains the most popular party in polls, has seen its support rate dwindle after nearly three years of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s rule, which was hit with a political funds scandal.

Kishida’s response to that scandal created major fissures within the party. Meanwhile, whomever the party picks is going to have to lead the LDP through a general election that must happen by October 2025.