What is the probability that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election?
Assuming you’re not a superforecaster with access to inside information and a dedicated staff of researchers, you’ll likely rely on experts and prices from election betting markets. Most show a race close to even, with prediction markets mostly having Trump as a slight underdog, while the best analysts have Trump with a small but significant lead. However, it’s a mistake to take these numbers at face value. Extracting from a selection of them the useful information and correcting some obvious flaws suggest that Trump is actually a substantial favorite. Let’s understand why.
Lets look at the expectations of expert forecaster Nate Silver and a major election-betting site, PredictIt. Although their estimates diverged substantially in June and July, they mostly converged in August and showed Trump at a substantial disadvantage by mid-month. In the last week, Silver is showing a Trump comeback that bettors don’t buy.
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