In pushing India’s stock market to an all-time high recently, investors seem to be drawing a smooth, straight line between a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi — their preferred and expected outcome of the just-completed general election — and soaring corporate profits. They might be ignoring an all-too-important speed bump: consumer debt.
A trifecta of slow wage growth, elevated interest rates and heavy borrowing by the average household has weakened the spending impulse of more than 300 million families that drives 70% of gross domestic product. Equity markets aren’t too perturbed. Investors are betting on a post-election boom in private capital expenditure on the back of $534 billion in new infrastructure expected by Bloomberg Economics to come online by 2026, boosting India Inc.’s competitiveness and lifting the economy’s growth potential. More confident companies will also create better-paying jobs. Sooner or later, interest rates will start to decline, both at home and globally. Households’ financial crunch will ease.
Bond investors’ thinking is not too dissimilar: Unlike his opponents, the prime minister isn’t promising a dramatic expansion of the welfare state. (According to him, he has already spent $400 billion on cash handouts and free food for the poor in the past 10 years.) Modi will instead borrow to expand productive capacity. A cautious fiscal stance and expectations of a stable currency make India’s rupee-denominated government notes attractive. Borrowing dollars to buy Asian bonds has been unprofitable almost everywhere this year. India has been a notable exception.