The likely fallout of Honda’s short-lived alliance with Nissan spells trouble for both companies, but probably one more than the other.

Nissan, which has struggled for years with revolving-door leadership and an outdated product lineup, may have doomed itself if it ultimately rejects Honda’s attempted takeover. And while Honda may have dodged a bullet by not taking on its weaker rival, it isn’t out of the woods either — it’s lagging behind in the global shift to electric vehicles, which has seen Chinese upstarts like BYD power ahead.

A deal would have created one of the world’s biggest carmakers, giving the combined company the scale it needs to compete with EV makers. Left on their own, Honda and Nissan are languishing in eighth and ninth place when ranked by global sales, and in danger of being overtaken by China’s Geely, whose sprawling empire includes brands like Zeekr, Volvo and Lotus.