Economists expect Chinese exports to reach a historical high this year as customers rush to front-load orders given President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of higher tariffs when he takes office in January.
Export growth will accelerate to 7% in the final three months from the same period last year, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg from Nov. 15 to 21. That’s an upgrade from the 5% gain seen in October ahead of the U.S. election and would push total exports this year to $3.548 trillion — above the previous record in 2022.
"In the next few months, Chinese exports might benefit from panic-stockpiling by foreign companies,” said Erica Tay, an economist with Maybank Investment Banking Group. "The specter of a trade war will probably cause China’s policymakers to lean more heavily on pro-consumption stimulus measures next year.”
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