A couple of hours outside Houston, in a remote field near a Dow Chemical plant, America’s bid to undercut China’s grip on the global supply of rare earth minerals critical to high technology has yet to break ground.

Even when it does, China’s dominance of the market — it controls about 70% of output and more than 90% of refining — means that goal will likely remain out of reach.

The Texas plant, to be built by Australia-based Lynas Rare Earths, represents a fraction of billions of dollars in subsidies and loans promised for the production and refining of the minerals in the U.S. and its key allies. For the 60-hectare site, Lynas won more than $300 million in Pentagon contracts. If all goes to plan, it will be operating a plant to process rare earths there in two years.