A slim majority of Bank of Japan watchers still expects the end of negative rates to come in April, but almost everyone agrees there’s a risk the move could come next week, according to a Bloomberg survey.
The proportion of 50 economists forecasting the BOJ will end the world’s last negative rate in April slipped to 54% in the latest survey from 59% in January. Some 38% expect the move next week, a big jump compared with only 8% who predicted a March move in the previous poll. Whatever their predictions, some 90% agree there’s a risk of an imminent hike.
The change in perceptions comes after a series of speeches in which BOJ officials hinted at change, and economic data that pointed to progress toward achieving the bank’s price goal. A key overarching factor is spring wage talks that will culminate with the results of deals on Friday.
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