Some investors are already gaming out how the U.S. 2024 presidential election could impact markets, as former U.S. President Donald Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary brings him closer to a rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden.
Any calculation of how stocks, bonds and currencies could react to the results of the November vote comes with caveats — especially since it’s early in the year and betting markets are split on which candidate will prevail. Most investors also believe drivers such as Federal Reserve policy, the economic cycle and corporate earnings will ultimately matter more for markets over the long term.
Nevertheless, expectations for politically fueled moves in asset prices around the 2024 vote are high among some strategists, with Goldman Sachs saying the election could be a "major market event.”