Japanese shares need to jump five large hurdles in early 2024 before surpassing the three-decade highs reached earlier this year.

That’s the view of analysts who see the nation’s equities indexes struggling over the next few months against a stronger yen, weak consumer spending, too many investors chasing a narrow range of stocks, competition from overseas share markets and political instability at home.

Nomura Holdings chief strategist Naka Matsuzawa expects Japan’s equities to drop around 5% over the next six months, while analysts at JPMorgan Chase and Saxo Markets see stock gains slowing to around 5% to 10% next year, after a more than 20% jump in benchmark indexes in 2023.