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Daniel Moss
Japan has effectively exited deflation, but Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s reluctance to acknowledge it reflects outdated economic fears rather than current reality.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Feb 13, 2025
It’s time for Japan to admit victory over deflation
The last time prices declined was in July 2021, the same month the Tokyo Olympic Games took place.
Southeast Asian economies, once seen as beneficiaries of the U.S.-China trade war, now face challenges as escalating tariffs and trade tensions threaten their growth and regional stability.
COMMENTARY / World
Feb 5, 2025
Winners of the first trade war may not be so victorious
Stuck between the U.S. and China, Southeast Asia’s challenges this time around are much greater.
Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda attends a news conference after the central bank's policy meeting in Tokyo on Friday. The BOJ raised its rate by a quarter-point to 0.5% that day.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Jan 26, 2025
Japan’s central bank drops the drama and wins on rates
The quarter-point increase, which took the main rate to 0.5%, was probably the most telegraphed this century.
Instead of the Bank of Japan's actions strengthening the yen as once hoped, recent steps have only caused further weakening.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Jan 22, 2025
Ueda’s doctrine for the BOJ is finally emerging
Instead of the Bank of Japan's actions strengthening the yen as once hoped, recent steps have only caused further weakening.
A giant 1000 Indonesian rupiah coin display inside the headquarters of Bank Indonesia in Jakarta
COMMENTARY / World
Jan 19, 2025
Indonesia is the latest country to risk a 'Japanification' tag
With markets sniffing out fiscal vulnerabilities in many countries, this would be an inopportune time to lose discipline.
The next 12 months will be more challenging, with some countries pursuing quick interest-rate cuts while others will proceed cautiously.
COMMENTARY / World
Dec 27, 2024
A view to 2025: Enough with the central bank hawks and doves
Interest-rate cuts will be a feature, including at institutions that resisted easing in 2024. But mind the nuances.
South Korea’s currency recovered while its stocks fell Wednesday as investors braced for prolonged political uncertainties following a brief decree of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol.
COMMENTARY / World
Dec 5, 2024
Capitalism is the unsung hero of South Korean democracy
Capitalism, with its economic pressures and global integration, has been crucial in fostering democracy in South Korea.
The United Nations once projected the world’s population would peak at 10.3 billion in the 2080s, but now expects 700 million fewer inhabitants by 2100.
COMMENTARY / World
Dec 4, 2024
Why falling fertility is not a crisis
The current population decline mirrors past transitions like the industrial revolution, where smaller families fueled economic growth and innovation.
Beijing’s long-standing line has been a commitment to keep the yuan "basically stable.” But U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return — and his threat of tariffs — may test that.
COMMENTARY
Nov 27, 2024
China will send a weaker yuan to the Trump front
Beijing’s long-standing line has been a commitment to keep the yuan "basically stable.” But Trump’s return with his tariff threats may test that.
Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda can point to Washington all he wants, but his inability to settle on a consistent message is part of what ails his nation's currency.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Oct 18, 2024
The yen pays the price for a timid Bank of Japan
Ueda can point to Washington all he wants, but his inability to settle on a consistent message is part of what ails his nation's currency.
While China's recent initiatives signal a willingness to address economic challenges, the road ahead remains difficult as the country's policymakers have yet to offer a clear road to success.
COMMENTARY / World
Oct 3, 2024
A stimulus is good, but China still faces a hard slog
Beijing is back in investors' good books. To justify the euphoria, it needs some meaty goals.
Looming interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a new hawkishness on the part of the Bank of Japan can make a claim for the yens recent movements.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Sep 13, 2024
Epic yen rally is a lesson in the lost art of FX intervention
Japan's own proactive currency interventions have played a crucial role in the yen's recent recovery.
Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda "predictably unpredictable" actions and policy shifts highlight the need for improved communication, reflecting modern central banking practices.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Aug 28, 2024
How long can the BOJ get away with rate shocks?
The BOJ’s shifting policies and Kazuo Ueda’s unpredictable approach reflect the need for better alignment with modern central banking practices.
The yen’s depreciation is largely down to the gap in interest rates between the U.S. and Japan. Therefore, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is, to all intents and purposes, “Mr. Yen.”
COMMENTARY / Japan
Jul 1, 2024
There’s a new 'Mr. Yen' in town
No matter what the Bank of Japan or the Finance Ministry do, ultimate control over the yen's value lies in the hands of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Monitors show the rate of the yen against the U.S. dollar at a foreign exchange brokerage in Tokyo on Monday. Traders are falling out of step with the Bank of Japan, expecting hawkish steps that are instead met with a cautious approach.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Jun 24, 2024
Traders are out of step with the BOJ’s Ueda
Time and time again, traders predict that the Bank of Japan will take bold next steps, but these rarely come. That's because Gov. Ueda is, most of all, cautious.
BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda has talked about the potential need for a monetary policy response given foreign exchange rates’ impact on the economy. Last month, the yen touched its weakest level in 34 years, ¥160 per dollar, before rebounding.
COMMENTARY / Japan
May 20, 2024
BOJ Gov. Ueda finally toughens message on the weak yen
Though most of the factors behind the flailing currency lie outside of Japan, the central bank and Finance Ministry have some agency in determining events. They should use it.
Soldiers and police stand guard outside a South Korean Army boot camp in Yeoncheon county before the arrival of K-pop's BTS band member Jin, in December 2022. South Korea's economic success is often  overshadowed by its cultural exports.
COMMENTARY / World
May 10, 2024
A surprise South Korean boom is going unnoticed
Despite its robust economic performance, South Korea often takes a backseat to neighboring giants like Japan and China.
The root cause of yen weakness lies in the U.S., not Japan, with the currency falling to its weakest since around 1990.
COMMENTARY / Japan
May 1, 2024
Japan should leave its currency bazooka at home
The root cause of yen weakness lies in the U.S., not Japan. That makes the latter's options very limited.
Ideal or not, the reality of the world is that one currency, the U.S. dollar, is first among equals.
COMMENTARY / World
Apr 18, 2024
Asian currencies can't fight the dollar on a rampage
Markets tend to reflect economic performance. And ideal or not, the reality of a world is one currency, the U.S. dollar, is truly first among equals.
BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda takes questions during a news conference. The bank's monetary policy overhaul announced last week was known by some Japanese media before it was made public.
COMMENTARY / Japan
Mar 25, 2024
The BOJ has sprung a leak. Japan must investigate.
The bank's policy of disclosing information selectively to certain media is harmful and needs to be looked into, as slip-ups in other countries show.

Longform

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