A sunny day is the best time to check whether the roof is watertight. For economic policymakers, the proverbial sunny day has arrived: with experts forecasting strong growth, now is the best time to check whether we are prepared for the next recession.
The answer, for the United States in particular, is a resounding no. Policymakers normally respond to recessions by cutting interest rates, reducing taxes and boosting transfers to the unemployed and other casualties of the downturn. But the U.S. is singularly ill-prepared, for a combination of economic and political reasons, to respond normally.
Most obviously, the U.S. Federal Reserve's target for the federal funds rate is still only 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent. If no recession is imminent, the Fed may succeed in raising rates three times by the end of the year, to around 2 percent. But that would still leave little room for monetary easing in response to recessionary trends before the policy rate hits zero again.