On Jan. 11 former Exxon Mobil CEO and now U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of state Rex Tillerson was grilled by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding his position on various current international issues. He was pressed by Texas Republican Sen. Marco Rubio regarding his view of recent actions by Russia in Ukraine, Syria and cyberspace. Tillerson wisely — some would say evasively — avoided direct answers repeatedly pleading ignorance and a need for more information.
He should have done the same for questions regarding China's actions in the South China Sea. Instead he made several intemperate remarks that have alarmed China and the region, including U.S. allies. Most provocatively he said that China's access to the features it has built up in the South China Sea is not going to be "allowed." He added that in general "I think a lot of our troubles today are that we do not enforce — we make commitments, we say are going to do something and then we don't enforce it". Given these ill-advised comments and those of Trump's actions in undercutting the U.S.-China fundamental understanding regarding the status of Taiwan, China may well think and prepare for the worst.
If the U.S. pursues Tillerson's position as policy, it will almost certainly mean high tension, instability and conflict in the region. Some would argue that such a "blockade" would be an act of war. Worse, according to Carl Baker of Pacific Forum, it is not at all clear that the U.S. has the "maritime power to set up a blockade in the South China Sea." But Tillerson may have already painted himself into a corner vis-a-vis China. Moreover if he is confirmed and doesn't follow through on this statement, he may well be hoisted on his own petard of "we say we are going to do something and then we don't enforce it".
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