Stop me if you've heard this one before. The North Koreans do something provocative (nuclear test, missile launch, etc.); the world rises as one to soundly and firmly condemn this grave violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, a demonstration of solidarity that lasts perhaps, if we're lucky, 24 hours; then the squabbling begins as to how severe the consequences will be. This results in a watered down UNSC resolution with some new (unlikely to be completely enforced) sanctions, an expression of outrage by Pyongyang and then another act of provocation.
To quote my childhood hero, the late New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra, it's deja vu all over again. The only difference this time is that the North Koreans started with the nuclear test rather than a missile launch. We already are seeing preparations for the missile test (thinly disguised as a satellite launch) which is sure to follow; I would also not be surprised to see another (their fifth) nuclear test as part of this current string of events.
Meanwhile the debate goes on at the UNSC over just how strong the sanctions will be, with Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo promising "painful" sanctions to demonstrate it is no longer "business as usual" and Beijing, not always but this time joined by Moscow, calling on "all sides" to refrain from destabilizing actions, as if "all sides" were at fault for the latest crisis.
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