Russia has recently increased its involvement in the Syrian civil war. An expanded flow of weapons and equipment, along with military advisors and perhaps even soldiers, to the embattled Damascus government signals an entirely new level of engagement for Moscow. These efforts are important signals from Russia about its determination to continue to be a player in the Middle East. They also, however, raise the risk of a clash between those forces and those of other countries that seek Syrian President Bashar Assad's ouster. The consequences of such a confrontation could be extremely dangerous.

Russia has backed the Syrian government for over 40 years. When Egypt left the Soviet camp in the early 1970s, and cast its lot with the United States and the peace process with Israel, Damascus kept great significance in Russian (then Soviet) eyes as a means to retain influence in this vital region. Over those four decades, Syria became a client state of Moscow, as its benefactor provided equipment and personnel, the latter in both training and advisory capacities. In addition to intelligence-gathering facilities, Russia has also had a naval supply station in the port of Tartus, the only Mediterranean base for its Black Sea Fleet.

Throughout the Syrian civil war, Moscow has backed Assad against all challengers, providing both diplomatic support — Moscow has used its veto in the United Nations Security Council to insulate Damascus from international pressure — and the military means to defend himself. Recently, however, Moscow has begun to send new weapons to Syria — two military flights a day — a development that is acknowledged by both Syrian and Russian sources. Unofficial reports indicate that Russian troops have already joined the fight. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem has said that his government was prepared to ask Russian forces to fight with Syria troops, although he added that Russia had not yet taken that step.