The year 2014 promises to be a year of tests. It will challenge leaders around the world, the political systems they preside over, and the institutions that have been created to provide rules and order. Legitimacy will be in question, and instability may well follow.

In Japan, the pre-eminent question is whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will continue to confound the skeptics or, by reining in his most conservative instincts, focus on the economic issues that will determine the ultimate success or failure of his administration. "Abenomics" will meet its test when the consumption tax increases in April. A strong and sound economy could provide a foundation for policy initiatives that follow as well as the prime minister's credibility in all other matters if his thinking and decisions are rational and reasonable.

In the United States, President Barack Obama must regain his flagging popularity, credibility and legitimacy. An expanding economy, coupled with successful implementation of his signature health care program, will restore the shine to his administration. An economic slowdown and a botched health care plan could cripple the White House and marginalize the U.S. for the last two years of his term.